Saturday, February 22, 2025

Applying machine learning algorithms to predict default probability in the online credit market | #Sciencefather #mathawards #Research

This article examines the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in predicting loan default probability using data from Renrendai, an online credit platform. Three models—K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF)—are compared against logistic regression.











1. Objective

  • To assess the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in predicting loan default probability in the online credit market.

2. Data & Methodology

  • Data Source: Renrendai, an online lending platform.
  • Models Used:
    • Machine Learning: K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF).
    • Benchmark: Logistic Regression for comparison.

3. Key Findings

  • Performance: Machine learning models outperform logistic regression.
  • Evaluation Metrics: AUC, accuracy rate, and Brier score show superior results for ML models.
  • IDI Test Results: Confirms higher predictive accuracy of ML models.

4. Investor Impact

  • ML models reduce misclassification costs.
  • Improve profitability and risk assessment for investors.

5. Conclusion

Machine learning enhances credit risk prediction and financial decision-making in online lending markets.

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